What's the rush -- some thoughts on the UK's Foundation Model Taskforce and regulation by Twitter

I have been closely following developments on AI regulation in the UK, as part of the background research for the joint submission to the public consultation closing on Wednesday (see here and here). Perhaps surprisingly, the biggest developments do not concern the regulation of AI under the devolved model described in the ‘pro-innovation’ white paper, but its displacement outside existing regulatory regimes—both in terms of funding, and practical power.

Most of the activity and investments are not channelled towards existing resource-strained regulators to support them in their task of issuing guidance on how to deal with AI risks and harms—which stems from the white paper—but in digital industrial policy and R&D projects, including a new major research centre on responsible and trustworthy AI and a Foundation Model Taskforce. A first observation is that this type of investments can be worthwhile, but not at the expense of adequately resourcing regulators facing the tall order of AI regulation.

The UK’s Primer Minister is clearly making a move to use ‘world-leadership in AI safety’ as a major plank of his re-election bid in the coming Fall. I am not only sceptical about this move and its international reception, but also increasingly concerned about a tendency to ‘regulate by Twitter’ and to bullish approaches to regulatory and legal compliance that could well result in squandering a good part of the £100m set aside for the Taskforce.

In this blog, I offer some preliminary thoughts. Comments welcome!

Twitter announcements vs white paper?

During the preparation of our response to the AI public consultation, we had a moment of confusion. The Government published the white paper and an impact assessment supporting it, which primarily amount to doing nothing and maintaining the status quo (aka AI regulatory gap) in the UK. However, there were increasing reports of the Prime Minister’s change of heart after the emergence of a ‘doomer’ narrative peddled by OpenAI’s CEO and others. At some point, the PM sent out a tweet that made us wonder if the Government was changing policy and the abandoning the approach of the white paper even before the end of the public consultation. This was the tweet.

We could not locate any document describing the ‘Safe strategy of AI’, so the only conclusion we could reach is that the ‘strategy’ was the short twitter threat that followed that first tweet.

It was not only surprising that there was no detail, but also that there was no reference to the white paper or to any other official policy document. We were probably not the only ones confused about it (or so we hope!) as it is in general very confusing to have social media messaging pointing out towards regulatory interventions completely outside the existing frameworks—including live public consultations by the government!

It is also confusing to see multiple different documents make reference to different things, and later documents somehow reframing what previous documents mean.

For example, the announcement of the Foundation Model Taskforce came only a few weeks after the publication of the white paper, but there was no mention of it in the white paper itself. Is it possible that the Government had put together a significant funding package and related policy in under a month? Rather than whether it is possible, the question is why do things in this way? And how mature was the thinking behind the Taskforce?

For example, the initial announcement indicated that

The investment will build the UK’s ‘sovereign’ national capabilities so our public services can benefit from the transformational impact of this type of AI. The Taskforce will focus on opportunities to establish the UK as a world leader in foundation models and their applications across the economy, and acting as a global standard bearer for AI safety.

The funding will be invested by the Foundation Model Taskforce in foundation model infrastructure and public service procurement, to create opportunities for domestic innovation. The first pilots targeting public services are expected to launch in the next six months.

Less than two months later, the announcement of the appointment of the Taskforce chair (below) indicated that

… a key focus for the Taskforce in the coming months will be taking forward cutting-edge safety research in the run up to the first global summit on AI safety to be hosted in the UK later this year.

Bringing together expertise from government, industry and academia, the Taskforce will look at the risks surrounding AI. It will carry out research on AI safety and inform broader work on the development of international guardrails, such as shared safety and security standards and infrastructure, that could be put in place to address the risks.

Is it then a Taskforce and pot of money seeking to develop sovereign capabilities and to pilot public sector AI use, or a Taskforce seeking to develop R&D in AI safety? Can it be both? Is there money for both? Also, why steer the £100m Taskforce in this direction and simultaneously spend £31m in funding an academic-led research centre on ethical and trustworthy AI? Is the latter not encompassing issues of AI safety? How will all of these investments and initiatives be coordinated to avoid duplication of effort or replication of regulatory gaps in the disparate consideration of regulatory issues?

Funding and collaboration opportunities announced via Twitter?

Things can get even more confusing or worrying (for me). Yesterday, the Government put out an official announcement and heavy Twitter-based PR to announce the appointment of the Chair of the Foundation Model Taskforce. This announcement raises a few questions. Why on Sunday? What was the rush? Also, what was the process used to select the Chair, if there was one? I have no questions on the profile and suitability of the appointed Chair (have also not looked at them in detail), but I wonder … even if legally compliant to proceed without a formal process with an open call for expressions of interest, is this appropriate? Is the Government stretching the parallelism with the Vaccines Taskforce too far?

Relatedly, there has been no (or I have been unable to locate) official call for expressions of interest from those seeking to get involved with the Taskforce. However, once more, Twitter seems to have been the (pragmatic?) medium used by the newly appointed Chair of the Taskforce. On Sunday itself, this Twitter thread went out:

I find the last bit particularly shocking. A call for expressions of interest in participating in a project capable of spending up to £100m via Google Forms! (At the time of writing), the form is here and its content is as follows:

I find this approach to AI regulation rather concerning and can also see quite a few ways in which the emerging work approach can lead to breaches of procurement law and subsidies controls, or recruitment processes (depending on whether expressions of interest are corporate or individual). I also wonder what is the rush with all of this and what sort of record-keeping will be kept of all this so that it there is adequate accountability of this expenditure. What is the rush?

Or rather, I know that the rush is simply politically-driven and that this is another way in which public funds are at risk for the wrong reasons. But for the entirely arbitrary deadline of the ‘world AI safety summit’ the PM wants to host in the UK in the Fall — preferably ahead of any general election, I would think — it is almost impossible to justify the change of gear between the ‘do nothing’ AI white paper and the ‘rush everything’ approach driving the Taskforce. I hope we will not end up in another set of enquiries and reports, such as those stemming from the PPE procurement scandal or the ventilator challenge, but it is hard to see how this can all be done in a legally compliant manner, and with the serenity. clarity of view and long-term thinking required of regulatory design. Even in the field of AI. Unavoidably, more to follow.

Brexit may have negative effects for the control of public expenditure, particularly regarding subsidies to large companies

In the current state of turmoil, it is difficult to speculate on the exact relationship between the EU and the UK that can result from the Brexit vote and the future negotiations to be held under Article 50 TEU, in case it gets triggered. However, in order to contribute to the debate of what that relationship should look like in the interest of taxpayers in the UK, it is important to consider the implications that a post-Brexit deal could have in terms of the potential disappearance of the EU rules applicable to the control of how public funds are spent. A reduction in the control mechanisms applicable to certain types of public expenditure could indeed diminish the effectiveness of policies funded by UK taxpayers and create shortcomings in public governance more generally.

This is particularly clear in the case of the EU State aid rules in Articles 107 to 109 TFEU and accompanying secondary legislation, which ultimately aim to avoid subsidy races, as well as the protectionist financing of national champions by Member States. Ultimately, these rules establish a set of controls over the selective channelling of public funds to companies, be it in the form of direct subsidies, or in more indirect ways such as tax exemptions, special contributions to pension plans, or the transmission of public assets (such as public land) in below-market conditions.

The European Commission has created a framework that allows Member States to use State aid for horizontal purposes (such as the support of environmental, innovation or employment-related activities), but also aims to prevent the use of public funds in order to benefit specific companies, in particular through a subsidisation of their operating costs. The European Commission enforces these rules and can bring Member States that breach them before the Court of Justice of the European Union. Additionally, competitors of the companies that receive State aid can challenge those decisions in their domestic courts.

Even if these rules are admittedly imperfect and their enforcement could be improved,* there is no question that the European Commission has been active and rather effective in combating the use of public funds to benefit specific large companies. Remarkably, Member States need to notify State aid measures to the European Commission and must not provide any aid until the Commission has authorised it. Overall, this means that in cases involving large companies, no State aid contrary to the EU rules is generally put in effect, as demonstrated by the discussions surrounding the Hinkley Point project. Where Member States infringe this standstill obligation, the Commission can force a recovery of the aid. The recent tax avoidance cases involving Starbucks or Fiat are a clear testimony of this important role in controlling the way public funds are spent in support of large companies.

The European Commission is thus heavily involved in the State aid measures aimed at specific large companies and acts as a filter to ensure that the expenditure of public funds pursues a legitimate objective in compliance with EU law. This was particularly the case of the State aid channelled to banks in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

Overall, then, at least for cases of State aid involving large sums of money and large companies, the Commission acts as an important filter to prevent damaging economic interventions in the economy, which constitutes an important check on how public money is spent. Whether such a tight system could be relaxed in order to enable a more proactive EU-wide industrial policy is a subject of significant debate, but the constraints that EU State aid rules currently impose on the provision of direct and indirect financial support to large companies are certainly not perceived as minor.

The question is thus whether a post-Brexit deal could free the UK Government from such State aid control, at least in the medium to long-run, so that it could engage in largely unchecked public subsidy policies, such as creating particularly beneficial tax conditions in order to try to retain or attract large multinational companies considering relocating elsewhere in the EU, or channelling public funds to chosen companies, either in support of industrial policy goals or otherwise.

These would be policy interventions clearly tackled by the European Commission under existing rules, and they would also be caught by the EFTA Surveillance Authority in case the post-Brexit deal resulted in the UK joining the European Economic Area (the so-called ‘Norwegian option’), which would require compliance with the same rules. However, whether interventions aimed at subsidising large companies would be caught in case of a ‘WTO-based’ trade scenario is less clear because the WTO rules on subsidies are not as tight as the EU’s, and their enforcement ultimately relies on other WTO Members bringing a complaint against the UK to the dispute settlement board, which is a very political decision ultimately reliant on trade calculations. To be sure, the EU itself could bring cases against the UK, but this would be a highly contentious issue in the framework of a relationship already very strained by the UK’s exit from the EU and detachment from the EEA.

Should the UK not be a part of the internal market via membership of the EU or the EEA, and in the absence of effective WTO-based external checks on the use of public funds to provide financial support to large companies, the control of this form of public expenditure would fall solely to Parliament and the domestic UK institutions, such as the National Audit Office.

This can be seen as an advantage by those convinced by arguments of self-control and UK-centric governance, but economic regulatory capture theory, and public policy theory more generally, have repeatedly demonstrated that such a self-policing architecture is unlikely to prevent ‘politicised’ uses of public funds. It seems clear to me that, in that case, the possibilities for any given Government to engage in expenditures of this type would be greater than they currently are, which would not necessarily result in the pursuance of the best interests of taxpayers in the UK.

Therefore, if there is value in having an external control of subsidies to large companies in order to avoid anti-economical protectionist policies or redistributive policies that take money away from other pressing social priorities—and I would certainly argue that there is—it seems clear to me that any post-Brexit deal that does not include the application of EU/EEA State aid rules would imply a net loss in terms of public governance and, in particular, in terms of an effective control of public expenditure, particularly regarding subsidies to large companies. Ultimately, then, from this perspective, it seems to me to be in the interest of taxpayers in the UK to strongly support a post-Brexit arrangement that retains State aid control, either by the European Commission or the EFTA Surveillance Authority.

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* A Sanchez-Graells, “Digging itself out of the hole? A critical assessment of the Commission’s attempt to revitalise State aid enforcement after the crisis” (2016) 4(1) Journal of Antitrust Enforcement 157-187.