The UK House of Commons’ International Trade Committee has an open inquiry into ‘The COVID-19 pandemic and international trade’, to which I submitted written evidence (available in HMTL and in PDF). In short, the document stresses that the extremely likely negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic for UK businesses trading internationally and for the parts of the UK’s public sector that rely on trading with international suppliers and contractors in the medium- and long-term can only be compounded by the uncertainty surrounding the on-going negotiations of a future UK-EU trade relationship. The single most effective intervention at this stage would be for the Department for International Trade to lead on the negotiations with the EU for a two-year extension of the transition period in conformity with Article 132 of the Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community.
The executive summary of my submission is as follows:
Publicly available UK economic forecasts and surveys are clearly indicating both a very sharp negative economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis during 2020 and longer-term unemployment challenges, as well as a very substantial decline in trade between the UK and third countries.
Most medium- and long-term impacts will be dependent on the severity of the economic crisis to follow the pandemic, both in the UK and abroad. However, there should be little doubt that supply chains will be severely disrupted, at least in the medium-term, and in particular if any relevant trading country needs to enter a second or ulterior period of lockdown.
Given its close trade ties, the UK is particularly exposed to the continuity of its trade with the European Union (EU), which has last been estimated to represent 45% of all UK exports and 53% of all UK imports. The intensity of these trade ties is likely to mean that, given a breakdown of existing supply chains, alternative arrangements available to UK businesses are likely to remain significantly concentrated in the EU and, likewise, UK businesses could take the position of bankrupt or temporarily unavailable suppliers in EU businesses’ supply chains.
Under the current circumstances, the added uncertainty surrounding the on-going negotiations of a future UK-EU trade relationship can only compound the likely negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic for UK businesses trading internationally and for the UK’s public sector in the medium- and long-term. The uncertainty surrounding the continuity of existing and new supply chain arrangements between the UK and the EU once the transition period ends can have severe chilling effects on UK businesses trading internationally and EU businesses supplying the UK.
Any material change to the trading terms between the UK and the EU is bound to have a very large negative impact for the UK economy. Before Brexit, the UK Government had assessed it at a loss of between 6.7 and 9.3% in GDP level in 15 years compared to staying in the EU. Under the current circumstances, the negative economic impact could be even larger.
The single most effective intervention at this stage would be for the Department for International Trade to lead on the negotiations with the EU for a two-year extension of the transition period under Article 132 of the Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community. Concerns about the UK’s contribution to the EU budget as a result of an extension of the transition period are unwarranted.
Postponing the end of the transition period to 31 December 2022 would create the necessary space not only for the future UK-EU trade relationship to be properly negotiated, but also to avoid adding the pressure of no-deal contingency planning to the already extreme circumstances under which UK businesses trading internationally and the parts of the UK public sector that rely on trading with international suppliers and contractors, are expected to operate post COVID-19.
As mentioned above, my full submission is available in HMTL and in PDF from the Select Committee website.